What Is the Global Natural Rubber Supply–Demand Landscape?

Aggregate Volume & Supply Gap

According to the ANRPC July 2026 report, global production in 2025 is estimated at 14.971 million tonnes and demand at 15.301 million tonnes, leaving a gap of roughly 330,000 tonnes; 2026 production is forecast at 15.279 million tonnes and demand at 15.356 million tonnes, with a projected deficit of approximately 77,000 tonnes. These projections are subject to revision as country-level output and consumption data are updated; users should verify the latest release.

Production Distribution

Thailand has long ranked first (at roughly the 4.8–4.9 million-tonne level), the world's largest producer with a mature export system. Indonesia remains a major producer (around 2.0–2.3 million tonnes, with a high smallholder share and output affected by tree age and replanting). Vietnam (approximately 1.25–1.30 million tonnes) boasts mature technically specified rubber (TSR) processing capabilities, a complete 3L, CV, and TSR product range, and a well-established supply chain to China. Côte d'Ivoire (around 1.8 million tonnes) has been the fastest-growing source of incremental supply in recent years.

China and India are both producers and large consumers: China produced about 973,000 tonnes in 2025, concentrated in Yunnan, Hainan, and Guangdong, with strong strategic-resource attributes; India stands at roughly the 850,000–900,000-tonne level, with strong domestic tire demand and notable import supplementation. Malaysia (roughly 350,000–400,000 tonnes) has fallen from historical peaks, yet its influence on standards and pricing remains significant. For common grades by country, see the article “What Natural Rubber Grades Are Common in Each Producing Country?”.

The above are rounded magnitudes based on 2024 actuals or 2025 estimates, intended only to convey a sense of scale. Statistical definitions of dry rubber, compound rubber, and processing trade may differ by country.

Demand Distribution

The tire industry accounts for roughly 70% of global consumption and is the largest segment determining demand cycles. Remaining demand comes from automotive parts, conveyor belts, hoses, footwear, engineering vibration-isolation and seismic-isolation products, medical goods, and daily-use latex products. China is the world’s largest consumer and importer, while India, Thailand, the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea also constitute important consumer markets.

Natural rubber demand does not move fully in step with vehicle sales: the tire replacement market, commercial-vehicle mileage, mining and construction-machinery activity, tire exports, and inventory cycles all change actual purchasing rhythms. Business teams should monitor end-market orders, factory operating rates, and raw-material inventories at the same time.